Commentary Archive

May 2008
15	U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up
15	U.S. Empire State Index Slipped
15	Philadelphia Fed Index Recovered, Expectations Up Sharply
15	U.S. Industrial Output Fell Hard Last Month
14	U.S. Small Business Optimism Recovered Slightly, Pricing Pressure Strong
14	U.S. Consumer Price Index Under Control in April
14	OECD Indicators Show Faltering Growth Prospects
13	Rising Inflation And Slowing Economy: A Dilemma For UK's Monetary Policy Committee On June 8
13	U.S. Business Inventory Gain Slowed, Retail Inventories Fell
13	U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Hard Last Week
13	U.S. Total Import Prices Surged, Ex. Oil They Jumped As Well
13	U.S. Retail Sales Fell in April, Nonauto Sales Firmer
12	U.S. April Budget Surplus Down, 2008 FYTD Deficit Nearly Doubled
12	Japan’s Economy Watcher’s Index Turns Lower Again
12	Italy’s Manufacturing Output Slips and EMU Tops Out
12	Inflation in Eastern Europe
9	France: With Consumer and Intermediate Goods Output Weakening… Can Capital Goods Be Far Behind?
9	U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Unexpectedly in March
8	German Order Trends are Mostly Cycling Lower
8	IP Trends in Germany Begin to Decay
8	U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Up in March, Stable With 2007
8	U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dip
7	U.S. Pending Home Sales Again Fell in March, As Expected
7	U.S. Productivity Growth Firm, Unit Labor Costs Contained
6	EMU Service Sector Makes Erratic Recovery in April
6	Trade Balances for Czech Republic, Malaysia and Australia
6	U.S. Gasoline Prices Stable at $3.61 per Gallon, WTI Crude Down
6	U.S. Chain Store Sales Dipped Last Week
5	So How Strong is the Euro?
5	Appreciation to Come in the Exchange Rates in the Gulf States ???
5	U.S. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Improved, Trend Still Lower
2	The NTC MFG Index/Indices Continue to Drop
2	French PPI Sees Gathering Momentum
2	German Retail Sales Show Some Life in Q1
2	U.S. Higher Gasoline Prices Weigh on Light Vehicle Sales
2	U.S. Payrolls Declined For Fourth Straight Month, Unemployment Slipped
1	U.S. Construction Spending Off Sharply
1	Challenger Layoffs Surged
1	U.S. Real DPI Flat in March, Trend Growth Reduced
1	ISM Factory Sector Index Unchanged, Prices Surged
1	Both NTC/CIPS and CBI Index Show Withering UK MFG/Industrial Sector
1	U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Back Up

April 2008
30	EU Indices in Steady State Decline…
30	FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate by 25 Basis Points
30	U.S. Employment Cost Index Steady At 0.8% Quarterly Increase
30	ADP Report: April Private Sector Payrolls Again Rose Slightly
30	U.S. 1Q'08 GDP Stable at 0.6%, Two Quarter Growth At Recession Level
29	Household Confidence in Near Free Fall in France
29	CBI Sales and Order Trends Weaken
29	Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts 10.7% y/y Decline
29	Consumer Confidence Fell in April, As Expected
29	Italian Business Confidence
29	U.S. Gasoline Prices Rose Another Dime to $3.60 per Gallon
29	U.S. Chain Store Sales Recovered Last Week
28	Italy’s Biz Confidence Continues to Sink
28	French Service Sector Outlook and Climate Gauges Slip
28	Brazil's Current Account Deficit Widens
25	German Export and Import Inflation Trends Blunted in March
25	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since 1982
24	IFO Weakness: A New Trend Lower or a ‘Mild’ Offset to a Spurious Jump?
24	U.S. Help-Wanted Advertising Fell to a Record Low
24	U.S. Durable Goods Orders Dipped Unexpectedly
24	U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Drop
24	U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Lowest Since February
23	Italy’s Retail Sales Growth Remains Stunted
23	Euro Area Orders Stabilize: A Leading or Misleading Statistic?
23	Belgian National Bank Index Signals Euro-Trouble Ahead
23	The U.S. Export Boom: Where Do They Go?
22	The European Union: Fourth Quarter Balance of Payments
22	U.S. Gasoline Prices Top $3.50 per Gallon
22	U.S. Chain Store Sales Slip
22	U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell, Prices Rose
21	Japan MFG and Services Indices Diverge
21	Producer and Consumer Price Inflation in the CIS Area
21	Chicago Fed Index Indicates Recession
18	German PPI Spurts in March
17	U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Up Slightly
17	Japan’s IP is Revised Sharply Higher: Still Growth Trends are Mixed
17	EMU Trade Deficit Shoots Back Into Surplus
17	Philadelphia Fed Index Down Again
17	MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again
17	U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up
16	Already High, Euro Area Inflation is Revised Up
16	U.S. Industrial Output Up 0.3% Last Month
16	U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Remained Low But Stable
16	U.S. Housing Starts Weaker Than Expected
16	U.S. CPI Total Rose An Expected 0.3%
15	U.K. RICS Survey at All-time Low for House Prices
15	For The ECB Inflation Fears Outweigh Investors' Worries
15	U.S. Chain Store Sales Rose Again Despite Record Gasoline Prices
15	U.S. Empire State Index Stabilized
15	U.S. PPI Soared
14	U.K. PPI Prices Soar in March
14	Euro Area IP Looses Some Momentum
14	U.S. Business Inventories Up
14	Rice Statistics in Haver Databases
14	U.S. March Retail Sales Remained Weak
11	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Down Yet Again
11	OECD LEIs Show Continued Slowdown Signal
11	U.S. Total Import Prices Surged, Ex. Oil Jumped
11	U.S. March Budget Deficit Shallower, 2008 FYTD Deeper
10	French and Italian IP: Both Strong in 2008-Q1
10	U.S. Trade Deficit Surprisingly Deeper in February
10	U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell Sharply
9	German Trade Picture Produces a Higher Surplus on Weak Imports
9	UK Output: Suddenly on the Mend
9	JOLTS: Job Openings & Hire Rates Still in Decline
9	U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell As Expected in February
8	U.S. Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 1980
8	Japanese Economy Watchers See Improvement In Current Conditions
8	U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Eased in February
8	U.S. Chain Store Sales Rise Moderate, Gas Prices Rise Strong
7	German Industrial Production Surprises on the Upside
7	U.S. Payrolls: Areas of Strength & Weakness
4	U.S. Payrolls Down For Third Month, Unemployment Up
4	German Orders Fall in January and February - Is Euro to Blame?
3	UK Service Sector Takes a Hit in March
3	European Consumer Spending Weakens in February
3	U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Improved Again
3	U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rise Into Recession Zone?
2	EMU PPI Trends Press Higher…
2	U.S. Factory Inventory Rise Continued Firm
2	Challenger Layoffs Down Last Month
2	U.S. Vehicle Sales Lowest Since 2005, Gasoline Price Up
2	ADP Report: March Private Sector Payrolls Rose Slightly
1	European Economic Data Hits Blow Hot and Cold: This Time Cold: German Retail Sales
1	Japan: TANKAN Results Show Growing Concerns Among Business
1	U.S. Construction Spending Slipped; Nonresidential Activity Slackened
1	U.S. Chain Store Sales Slipped Again
1	ISM Factory Sector Index Ticked Higher But Still Was Below 50

March 2008
31	Inflation and Economic Sentiment in the Euro Area
31	Commodity Prices Surge
28	Japan’s Inflation Rate Rises but ‘Core’ Still Below ZERO Yr/Yr
28	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fell Further
28	U.S. Real DPI Up 0.3%, Real PCE Flat, Prices Easy
27	Japan Retail Sales Show Some Life in January and Give it Back in February
27	French Service Sector Continues to Lose Momentum
27	U.S. Help-Wanted Advertising Back to Record Low in January
27	U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dipped
27	U.S. 4Q GDP Growth Unrevised at 0.6%, Profits Fell
26	French Production Trend is Lower but Optimism is Intact
26	Biz Confidence Sinks Further in Italy
26	Germany’s IFO Index Turns Up…Again
26	EMU Orders Rise in January but Trends Point Lower
26	U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Surprising Decline
26	U.S. New Home Sales Down Again
25	Iceland Raises Its Official Discount Rate to 15%
25	Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply
25	Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts 10.7% y/y Decline
25	U.S. Petroleum Prices Tick Lower
25	U.S. Chain Store Sales Backpedal
24	Italy Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence Sag
24	Large Japanese Business Firms Turn More Pessimistic
24	Chicago Fed Index So Low Perhaps Indicates Recession
24	U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose Slightly. Momentum Changing?
21	Italy’s Consumer Confidence Erodes
21	French Orders in Holding Pattern With Strong Foreign Orders
21	Nonbank Dealers Borrow $29 Billion from the Fed
20	German Ex-Energy PPI Shows Disconcerting Pressure!
20	UK Retail Sales Show Unexpected Zest
20	U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fell For Fifth Month
20	Philadelphia Fed Index Improved Slightly
20	U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Highest Since 2005
19	Japan Slips and its Assessment is Cut…
19	UK Order Books are “Full”…but for How Long?
19	Italy Orders Rise in Month but Still Faltering Trend
19	U.S. Empire State Index More Negative
19	U.S. Business Inventories Starting to Back Up
18	FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate by 75 Basis Points
18	Inflation Targeting in UK and CANADA
18	Italy’s Trade Deficit Widens: Complex Picture Emerges
18	U.S. Chain Store Sales Up Slightly and Gasoline Prices Up Sharply
18	U.S. PPI Total & Total Firm
18	U.S. Housing Starts Buoyed Again By Multi-Family
17	U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Low & Stable
17	U.S. Current Account Deficit Shrunk in 2007
17	Stock Markets Plunge: Commodity Prices Soar
17	U.S. Industrial Output Down
14	Inflation Flares Further in the Euro Area
14	BoF Indicator Continues to be Weak
14	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fell Again
14	U.S. CPI Total & Core Unchanged
13	Japan’s Industrial Sector Slows Down, Does the Economy?
13	Japan Retail Sales: A Jump Then a Slowing
13	U.S. Total Import Prices Eased, Nonoil Strongest Since 1995
13	U.S. Budget Deficit Deeper Due to Revenue Shortfall & Spending Surge
13	U.S. Retail Sales Fell Unexpectedly, Discretionary Sales Mixed
13	U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Unchanged
12	French Inflation Begins to Level Off in February
12	JOLTS: Job Openings Broadly Down Early in 2008
12	U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Continued To Surge
12	Euro-Area IP Rebounds in January
12	Japan GDP is Revised Lower
11	Small Business Optimism Ticked Up
11	U.S. Chain Store Sales Weak As Gasoline Price Surged
11	RICS House Prices Continue to Drop to New Lows
11	The Financial Community in Germany and Economy Watchers in Japan Are a Bit less Pessimistic about Their Economies
11	U.S. Trade Deficit Widened
10	ZEW Expectations Rise Again as Current Conditions Erode
10	Japan Machinery Orders Show Strength
10	Economy Watchers Index Rebounds
10	China's Surplus on Total Trade in Goods Down Sharply in February But Less So With the U.S.
10	U.S. Flow of Funds: Debt Growth Slowed, Household Net Worth Down
7	German IP Sees Huge Lift From Capital Goods
7	OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Moderate Slowing
7	U.S. Payrolls Again Fell Unexpectedly
6	Japan Economy Shows Weakening Sectors and a Weakening Outlook
6	German Orders Take Another Swing Lower
6	U.S. Factory Inventory Gain Strong, Orders Reverse December Rise
6	U.S. Pending Home Sales Unchanged in January
6	U.S. Weekly Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
5	EMU Services PMI Makes a Small Rebound in February
5	Retail Sales and Spending Plans in EMU: Deceleration
5	U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Somewhat Improved
5	Challenger Layoffs Down Last Month
5	ADP Report: Private Payrolls Fell
5	U.S. Productivity Growth Revised Little, Unit Labor Costs Revised Up
4	EMU GDP Growth Decelerates
4	Euro Area Producer Prices Surge in January; Core Elevates Too
4	Slovakia and Romania Report Increases in Q4, 2007 GDP
4	U.S. Chain Store Sales Down Last Week, Up Last Month
4	U.S. Vehicle Sales in February Remained Low, Gasoline Price Up
3	UK MFG Sector Makes a Small Bounce
3	Inflation Continues to be too Strong in EMU in February
3	Canadian GDP Report Fuels Speculation of a Rate Cut
3	U.S. Construction Spending Fell. All Categories Down
3	ISM Index Factory Sector Falls Below 50: Indicates Contraction

February 2008
29	Is the ECB Winning or Losing on Inflation?
29	EU Indexes Point Lower - Across the Board
29	Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Lowest Since 2001
29	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Lowered By A Foul Opinion of Government
29	U.S. Real Disposable Income Up 0.1%, Spending Flat, Core Price Gains Faster
28	Japan Industrial Production is Slipping
28	UK Consumer Confidence Drops
28	French Morale Slips Then Falls Flat. Worst In Over 18 Years
28	U.S. Help-Wanted Advertising Back to Record Low in January
28	U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Up
28	U.S. 4Q GDP Held at 0.6% Growth
27	Home Price Appreciation Weakest Since 1990
27	German Ex Energy Export and Import Prices Are Still Falling Yr/Yr
27	Money and Credit Trend in Euro Area Remain Robust…
27	U.S. Durable Goods Orders Off Big, As Expected
27	US New Home Sales Off 57.7%, Midwest Sales Down 71.5%
26	Italy’s Business Morale is Still Sinking
26	German Business Confidence Improves--A Big Increase In Confidence In Retail Trade
26	Consumer Confidence Plummet, Expectations the Dreariest
26	Gasoline Prices Surged, Crude Oil Crested $100
26	Case-Shiller Home Price Index Lowest Since 2005
26	U.S. PPI Total & Core Strong
25	Italy Retail Sales Trends Continue to Erode
25	Rise in Singapore's Inflation Spotlights Rises in World Grain Prices
25	Economists Forecast No U.S. Recession in 2008
25	Chicago Fed National Activity Index Still Negative, Inflationary Pressure Low
25	U.S. Existing Home Sales Slipped & Prices Off More
22	EMU Flash PMIs are Weak; Especially for Services
22	U.S. Loan Delinquencies Up Across the Board
22	Euro Area Orders Drop Sharply in December
22	Business Climate Edges Lower in France
21	Philadelphia Fed Index Lowest Since 2001
21	U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Down
21	French Inflation: Core and Headline Rates Move Higher
21	U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down, Revisions Up
20	UK Output Trends Decline as Orders Hover Showing Small Persisting Gains
20	German PPI Inflation Shows Stubbornness
20	New Industrial Orders in December Sag in Italy and in France
20	U.S. Housing Starts Remain Near 1991 Lows
20	U.S. CPI Total Stable, Core Strongest Since 2006
19	Japan Offers Up some Mixed Signals From Two LEI Concepts
19	Japan's Current Account Balances by Region
19	U.S. Budget Deficit Deeper: A Weaker Economy
18	China and Singapore ---The Big and The Small---Show Increased Trade Surpluses
15	EMU Trade Deficit Emerges
15	BOF Biz Indicators Softens
15	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Dropped Hard
15	U.S. Industrial Production Ticked 0.1% Higher
15	U.S. Import Price Rise Strong
14	U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Down in 4Q Due To Autos
14	U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slipped, Monthly Rose
14	U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply
14	Euro Area GDP Slows on a Very Broad Front
13	IP Sinking in All Sectors
13	Japan's Consumer Confidence Very Weak
13	U.S. Retail Sales Above Expectations: Auto Sales & Gas Prices Rose
12	German Financial Community a Bit Less Pessimistic About the Outlook
12	JOLTS: Job Openings Down in 2007
12	U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell, Gasoline Prices Down
12	Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 1990
11	Industrial Production in the Ukraine and Kazakhstan
11	Italy’s IP is Sinking Fast…
11	French IP Rebounds Without Enthusiasm
8	Economy Watchers to Very Deep Depths…
8	OECD Leading Indices Drop: Except Japan
8	German Output in Slight Slowing
8	U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Eased in December but Accelerated in 2007
7	UK Industrial Production Growth Slows to a Crawl
7	French Trade Flows Slow; Imports Drop Sharply
7	German Orders Still Strong, but More Are Disbelieving
7	U.S. Pending Home Sales Seeking a Bottom?
7	U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slipped
6	Italy’s Inflation Rate Shows Core Pressure Through Dec; In Jan Headline Abates
6	French Retail Sales Trend Slips
6	Productivity Down in Q4 But Up for All of 2007; Factory Sector Costs Up
5	Inflation in the Pacific Rim
5	U.S. Factory Numbers Dominated by Aircraft Industry
5	EMU Retail Sales Sink…Again
5	Europe’s Service Index Drops as US ‘Service’ Index Collapses
5	U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Down Sharply, Lowest Since 2001
5	U.S. Chain Store Sales in Modest Uptrend
4	Currencies in Australia and New Zealand Continue to Strengthen
4	PPI Main Sector Trends Still Excessive But Lose Some Momentum
4	U.S. Vehicle Sales in January Lowest in Over Two Years
4	U.S. Construction Spending Decline Largest Since 1991
1	NTC Shows a Rebound in Europe
1	ISM Index Improved
1	Michigan Consumer Sentiment's Earlier Gains Diminished
1	U.S. Payrolls Fell Unexpectedly, Revisions & Jobless Rate Down Slightly

January 2008
31	U.S. Help-Wanted Advertising Remained Low
31	EU and Country Level Confidence is Still Sinking
31	German Retail Sales Continue to Slow
31	U.S. Employment Cost Index Steady At 0.8% Quarterly Increase
31	U.S. Personal Income Firm, Spending Light
31	U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Surged
30	Case-Shiller Home Price Index Lowest Since 2005
30	FOMC Lowers Interest Rates Further
30	ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Much Improved
30	US 4Q GDP Weaker Than Expected At 0.6%. Exports & Inventories Added Less
29	ISAE Biz Confidence Edges Lower
29	French Consumer Confidence Continues to Decline
29	Consumer Confidence Stayed Low
29	UK Retail Sector Continues to Ramp Down
29	U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surged in December, Gain Slowed in 2007
28	Little Change in Business and Consumer Confidence in the Czech Republic and Slovenia
28	US New Home Sales Off 41% in Last Twelve Months; Lowest Since 1995
28	Money Growth
25	Excluding Energy, Trends are Turning in Germany
25	French Biz Confidence Hovers Just Short of Recent Highs
25	Mass Layoffs Higher Still
24	Italy’s Consumer Confidence Falls Well Below Past Recession-Start Levels
24	Germany’s IFO Index Bounces on Improved Expectations
24	Japan’s Imports Hold up as Exports Slow
24	Existing Home Sales Lowest Since 1998, Prices Off 10% Since Peak
24	Low U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance: Doubts About Hiring Slowdown
23	European Orders Surprise with a Spurt in November
23	U.S. Chain Store Sales Move Sideways
23	Chicago Fed National Activity Index Remained Negative
22	UK Industrial Sector Shows no Sign of Weakness, but Hints at Inflation
22	Turmoil in Stock Markets Around the World Leads to a 75 Point Cut in FED'S Benchmark Interest Rate
22	FOMC Takes Aggressive Action
21	German PPI: Oh, BEHAVE! …and it does
21	More Evidence of Weakness in U.K. Housing Market
18	Japan MFG and Service Sectors still Growing…but Slower
18	UK Retail Sales Take a Hit
18	French New Orders Soften but Still Grow
18	U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Down Again
18	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest in Four Months
17	Exports Slowing in the Zone; Imports improving...at least Yr/Yr
17	Philadelphia Fed Index Plummets Further
17	U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Lowest Since September
17	U.S. Housing Starts Plumb 1991 Lows
16	U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Remained Low, Down Hard Out West
16	U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in Dec. A Recession Begun?
16	RICS Survey Takes an Ongoing Dive
16	U.S. CPI Total & Core Tame
15	HICP is Rising in Many ECB Countries
15	No Surprise: Sentiment Among German Investors and Analysts Falls
15	U.S. Business Inventories' Accumulation Still Slowing
15	U.S. PPI Eased
15	U.S. Retail Sales Miss Expectations
14	Euro Area IP Slows on Broad Front
14	UK Core PPI Inflation on the Rise Again
14	Decline in British Pound Complicates U.K. Monetary Policy, Dampens Euro Area Export Prospects
14	U.S. Budget Deficit Deeper in 1Q FY08: Growth in Receipts Down, Outlays Up
11	U.S. Import Prices Flat as Oil Levels Off
11	Japan’s Economy Watcher Index Measures Sink Sharply
11	OECD Leading Indicators Showing Declining Momentum
11	U.S. Trade Deficit Deepest Since Last August, Oil Imports Surged
10	French Industrial Production: Losing Momentum
10	U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell
9	German IP Slows, While Orders Grow...an Accelerate
9	German Retail Sales are a DISASTER in November
9	U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Up in November, Trend Down Sharply
9	German Orders in Surprise Spurt
8	U.K. House Prices: Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) Indexes and Averages of House Prices
8	Small Business Optimism Remained Low
8	U.S. Pending Home Sales Down Slightly in November
8	U.S. Chain Store Sales Touch a New High
8	Gasoline Prices Up Further
8	EMU Retail Sales Volumes Still Sinking in Q4
7	Economic Sentiment Continues to Falter in Europe
7	Euro Area: PPI Headline Inflation Soars While ex Energy Prices Hold at a Too-High Pace
7	U.S. Construction Spending Up Slightly in November
4	U.S. Payrolls Weak, Unemployment Rate Surged
4	U.S. Vehicle Sales Tick Up in December, Down in 2007
4	U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Index Fell Again
4	Service Sector Still Pummeled in Europe…France Excepted
4	French Consumer Confidence Continues to Slide
3	ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Negligible
3	Challenger Layoffs Fell Back
3	U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Retreated, but 2005 Revisited
2	U.S. Construction Spending Rose Slightly
2	Existing Home Sales Up Slightly
2	ISM Index Below 50
2	U.S. Chain Store Sales Surged at Yearend '07