Global| Feb 04 2014Empire State Business Leaders Survey Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Business Leaders Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is similar to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. One set of numbers covers New York's service sector and the other the factory sector. During January, the [...]
The Business Leaders Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is similar to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. One set of numbers covers New York's service sector and the other the factory sector. During January, the figure for the Business Leaders Survey fell to 6.19, its lowest level since September. That compared to marked improvement in the factory sector reading.
Leading the survey lower was a reduced employment figure of 0.89, the lowest reading since April. Also falling sharply were the prices received and the wages indexes. Offsetting these declines was improvement in the business climate and capital spending numbers. The prices paid figure improved m/m but has been trending sideways since mid-2012.
The N.Y. Fed also generates the Business Activity Index, 6 months ahead. It improved last month to its highest level since February 2011. The gain was led by higher readings for the business climate, capital spending and prices received series. The employment reading ticked higher but has been range-bound for the last nine months. To the down side were wages and prices paid.
The Business Leaders Survey is contained in Haver's SURVEYS database. The figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered.
The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| Business Leaders Survey (New York Service Sector) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index (Diffusion Index, %) | 6.19 | 7.89 | 14.14 | -1.23 | 4.07 | -0.12 | -1.45 |
| Employment | 0.89 | 8.77 | 7.22 | 10.00 | 7.11 | 4.95 | 4.62 |
| Wages | 26.55 | 28.95 | 32.65 | 33.33 | 34.16 | 31.05 | 35.80 |
| Prices Paid | 48.67 | -24.10 | -17.11 | -7.53 | -8.74 | -8.83 | -5.29 |
| Business Activity 6 Months Ahead (Diffusion Index, %) | 46.90 | 30.97 | 27.27 | 22.50 | 28.43 | 22.45 | 26.47 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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