Global| Oct 15 2010Empire State Business Conditions Improve As Employment Picks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its October Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions improved to 15.73 which was the highest level since June. The figure suggests positive growth in factory sector [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its October Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions improved to 15.73 which was the highest level since June. The figure suggests positive growth in factory sector activity and was more-than-double Consensus expectations.
Most of the component series improved m/m, except inventories and the employee workweek. Notable were the gains in the shipments and new orders indexes. Also impressive was the gain in the employment index to near its highest level since 2004. Since inception there has been an 87% correlation between the jobs index level and the m/m change in factory sector payroll employment.
The prices paid index also improved to 30.00 which was its highest level since February. Since inception there has been a 76% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three-month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months recovered most of the declines of the last two months. Virtually all of the component series improved.
The Empire State data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The figures are diffusion indexes. Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to independent survey questions; it is not a weighted combination of the components. The series dates back only to 2001.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | October | September | August | Oct. '09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index,%) | 15.73 | 4.14 | 7.10 | 33.44 | -2.76 | -9.97 | 17.22 |
| New Orders | 12.90 | 4.33 | -2.71 | 30.81 | -2.52 | -6.22 | 15.70 |
| Inventories | -11.67 | 1.49 | 2.86 | -18.18 | -22.89 | -7.87 | -3.95 |
| Employment | 21.67 | 14.93 | 14.29 | 10.39 | -17.28 | -5.36 | 11.28 |
| Prices Paid | 30.00 | 22.39 | 20.00 | 19.48 | 1.33 | 46.99 | 35.64 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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