Global| Feb 21 2006ECRI Leading Index Down Recently, Momentum Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped during the last three weeks after picking up considerable momentum in early January. The index declined 0.9% last week after [...]
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped during the last three weeks after picking up considerable momentum in early January. The index declined 0.9% last week after two back to back weekly declines of 0.1%.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
Despite the recent weakness, the six month growth rate of the leaders at 4.7% is much improved from last year's meandering growth rate of 1.9% which typified growth during much of the year.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
How Should Monetary Policymakers Cope with Uncertainty?, a speech by Cathy E. Minehan, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found here.
| Economic Cycle Research Institute | 02/10/06 | 12/30/05 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Leading Index | 136.9 | 135.7 | 2.1% | 134.5 | 132.6 | 124.9 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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