Global| Mar 24 2017Durable Goods Orders Strengthened by Another Jump in Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February following a 2.3% January gain, initially reported as 1.8%. A 1.2% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The headline rise in [...]
New orders for durable goods rose 1.7% (5.0% y/y) during February following a 2.3% January gain, initially reported as 1.8%. A 1.2% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The headline rise in orders again reflected strength in the transportation sector where a 4.3% increase was driven by a 47.6% jump in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts. Bookings for defense aircraft declined 12.8% and orders for motor vehicles & parts eased 0.8%. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, orders increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y) and have been rising since June.
Nondefense capital goods orders increased 4.1%. Excluding the rise in aircraft, orders dipped 0.1%.
Two areas of strength in orders last month were the metals sector where primary metals orders jumped 2.1% (6.0% y/y), and electrical equipment orders rose 2.2% (2.9% y/y). In other areas, orders were soft. Fabricated metals orders eased 0.4% (+5.7% y/y), but machinery orders improved 0.1% (5.1% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.2% (+5.3% y/y) as computers & related product orders rose 1.6% (-3.1% y/y). Communications & equipment orders fell 3.8% (+5.5% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.3% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments gained 0.6% (4.5% y/y). Unfilled durable goods orders remained unchanged (-1.4% y/y) while excluding transportation, order backlogs gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) while less transportation inventories increased 0.3% (0.8% y/y)
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 1.7 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 5.0 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 4.8 |
| Transportation | 4.3 | 7.0 | -4.3 | 5.9 | -0.5 | -4.0 | 6.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 4.6 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 3.8 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 6.7 | -5.2 | -9.6 | 1.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.7 | -3.4 | -3.2 | 0.8 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | 8.6 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.6 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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