Global| Apr 27 2017Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March following a 2.3% February gain, revised from 1.8%. A 1.2% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase in total orders [...]
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March following a 2.3% February gain, revised from 1.8%. A 1.2% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The increase in total orders continued to reflect strength in the transportation sector where a 2.4% increase was driven by an 11.2% jump in orders for aircraft & parts. Bookings for defense aircraft strengthened 26.1% and orders for nondefense aircraft & parts improved 7.0%. Motor vehicles & parts orders eased 0.8%. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, orders eased 0.2% following as a 0.7% gain, revised from 0.4%. The y/y increase of 4.6% was improved from a 3.5% y/y decline as of last June.
Nondefense capital goods orders increased 1.2% (9.6% y/y). Excluding the rise in aircraft, orders notched 0.2% higher. Here again, the 3.0% y/y comparison stands in contrast to a 5.6% decline as of July.
A 0.8% rise (6.0% y/y) in primary metals provided strength to overall orders gain last month, though it was counter-balanced by a 0.8% decline (+7.2% y/y) in fabricated metals orders. Electrical equipment orders gained 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after a 2.2% rise. Offsetting these increases was a 0.2% decline in machinery orders. The 5.2% y/y comparison reversed a 7.5% y/y decline as of August. Computers & electronic products orders eased 0.2% (+4.7% y/y), off for the third straight month.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.2% for a second straight month. Orders excluding transportation ticked 0.1% higher (4.5% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Unfilled orders of durable goods improved 0.2%, and excluding transportation they also improved 0.2% (2.6% y/y). Inventories of durable goods edged 0.1% higher. The 0.2% y/y gain stood in contrast to a 3.5% y/y rate of inventory decumulation as of last June.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 4.8 |
| Transportation | 2.4 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.2 | -0.5 | -4.0 | 6.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 4.6 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 3.8 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 1.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 9.6 | -5.2 | -9.6 | 1.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -3.2 | 0.8 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -2.4 | 8.6 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -1.1 | -0.6 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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