Durable Goods Orders Down Just Slightly

Durable goods orders fell a slight 0.6% last month. Consensus expectations were for a steep 3.0% decline following an 8.6% July jump that was little revised.

Much of the recent volatility in orders has been due to the transportation sector where aircraft (defense and nondefense) orders fell sharply in June, then more than doubled in July but fell just slightly last month. Orders excluding transportation equipment fell 0.9% last month but have worked 2.2% higher YTD.

Orders for nondefense capital goods surged for the second straight month. Excluding aircraft and parts orders added 0.6% to a 7.0% July gain.

Orders for computers and electronic products fell 0.3% (-0.8% YTD) following a 3.6% July surge. Machinery orders fell 2.5% after a sharp 10.4% July rise. Orders for electrical equipment rose for the first month in four (-1.3% YTD).

Orders for defense goods jumped 28.9% (14.8% YTD). Excluding defense, durable orders rose 0.6% (6.0% YTD) following a 7.0% July spurt.

Shipments of durable goods fell 1.3% (3.2% YTD), the third decline in four months.

Durable inventories fell 0.2% (-4.1% YTD), the nineteenth consecutive monthly decline.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected in the latest week, falling 24,000 from the prior week which was revised higher.

The four-week moving average fell slightly to 419,000, up 10.1% from the recent low set in early August.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose a sharp 2.5%, the third consecutive weekly rise but the prior week's level was revised down. Continuing claims have risen 5.8% since the weekly low of this past July.

The weekly insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9%, the highest level since June.

Sales of new single family homes last month were stronger than Consensus expectations for a 980,000 sales rate. July figures were revised sharply lower leaving August as the new record sales rate.

Sales were mixed across the country’s regions. Sales rose sharply in the West and modestly in the South. Sales fell in the Northeast (for the fifth month this year, down 19.7% from the peak) and were unchanged in the Midwest.

The median price of a new home rose 1.6% to $175,300 (0.9% y/y). Prices in July were revised up slightly.

The new home sales data reflect current sales versus the existing home sales figure which reflect closings on past sales.

The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in August continued the recent slide. The index has fallen materially in four of the last six months and was down 6 points, or 12.8%, from yearend 2001.

The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume fell to 18%, the lowest level since October.

During the last five years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.

Job opportunities deteriorated in each of the regions of the country except the West South Central where they improved slightly m/m but remained depressed YTD.

The figures are seasonally adjusted.