Global| Jul 28 2014Dallas Fed Factory Sector Indexes Improve; Outlook is Mixed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its July Composite index covering Texas factory sector activity improved to 12.7 from 11.4 in June. The latest figure was the highest since last September. The rise was driven by a jump [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its July Composite index covering Texas factory sector activity improved to 12.7 from 11.4 in June. The latest figure was the highest since last September. The rise was driven by a jump in shipments growth to a new high, as well as an improved company outlook, higher production, new orders growth rate and a longer workweek. Remaining fairly stable m/m were growth in wages & benefits, prices received for finished goods, unfilled orders and capital expenditures. Declining moderately were employment and prices paid for raw materials, though both remained in the sideways trends of the last 6 or 12 months.
The Dallas Fed also surveys expectations for factory sector conditions in six months. The business activity figure rose modestly to 19.8 but remained in the sideways trend of the last seven months. Also moving sideways were the indexes covering the expected new orders growth rate and wages & benefits. Unfilled orders expectations improved as did the volume of shipments to a six-month high. Other component series deteriorated, however, including the company outlook, production and the employee workweek.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Data for the Dallas Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Survey Offers Advance Look at State and National Economies from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 12.7 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| New Orders Volume | 13.0 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Wages & Benefits | 18.8 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 16.1 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 9.2 |
| General Business Activity Six Months Ahead | 19.8 | 18.7 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
