Global| Oct 31 2016Dallas Fed Factory Sector Index Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity in Texas remained slightly negative in October. The figure at -1.5, however, was improved versus the low of -34.6 in January. The [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity in Texas remained slightly negative in October. The figure at -1.5, however, was improved versus the low of -34.6 in January. The production index declined to 6.7 following its September jump to 16.7. Hiring activity also eased. The employment index indicated little change in hiring activity after September's first positive reading since yearend 2015. Pricing power strengthened. The index of 1.2 for finished goods was the first positive reading since December 2014. The growth rate of new orders remained up from the expansion low in June.
Prospects for business activity eased with the reading for six months ahead falling to 4.8, its weakest value since June. The production reading improved slightly, however, to 33.0, its best level in three months. Optimism about the outlook for new orders also improved modestly. Continued caution showed up in employment prospects where the six-month ahead figure of 14.2 was at the lowest level since June. Expected wages & benefits recovered their September decline. Expectations for the length of the workweek deteriorated sharply to the lowest point since May.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Dallas Federal Reserve Texas Manufacturing Survey (SA, Percent Balance) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago | -1.5 | -3.7 | -6.2 | -13.8 | -12.5 | 8.3 | 2.2 |
| Production | 6.7 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 14.5 | 9.8 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | -5.1 | -5.8 | 2.1 | -7.0 | -11.8 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| Number of Employees | 0.2 | 2.3 | -5.0 | -1.3 | -0.4 | 11.5 | 5.7 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 1.2 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -8.9 | -8.5 | 8.3 | 2.9 |
| Business Activity in Six Months | 4.8 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 17.4 | 11.0 |
| Production | 33.0 | 30.5 | 32.8 | 34.3 | 31.1 | 42.7 | 37.1 |
| Future New Orders Growth Rate | 23.5 | 19.1 | 27.2 | 19.7 | 20.7 | 31.5 | 25.1 |
| Number of Employees | 14.2 | 14.5 | 21.7 | 18.1 | 14.6 | 28.6 | 23.1 |
| Wages & Benefits | 36.4 | 31.2 | 38.1 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 43.1 | 38.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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