Global| Mar 30 2015Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Erodes Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its March Composite index of factory sector activity deteriorated to -17.4, the third consecutive negative monthly reading. The figure reflected weakness amongst most of the component [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its March Composite index of factory sector activity deteriorated to -17.4, the third consecutive negative monthly reading. The figure reflected weakness amongst most of the component series, most notably production which was at the weakest level since the end of the recession. The company outlook measure stabilized near the lowest level since May 2013 and the growth rate of new orders held near the recovery low. Employment turned negative to the lowest reading since May 2013. Pricing power also deteriorated to nearly its recovery low. Raw materials pricing remained depressed with lower commodity prices.
The business activity reading for six months ahead slipped to 3.0, down from its April 2014 high of 25.3. The company outlook figure moved up a bit m/m but remained depressed versus its high in January of last year. The future production figure also improved m/m to its best reading since November. Expected new orders growth recovered as well to its best level since November. The reading for future employment rebounded to its best level in three months, though it remained down from its high early last year. The reading for wages expected in six months, however, deteriorated. Workers' hours improved to the best level since November. The expected workweek also recovered to a four-month high.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA, Percent Balance) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago | -17.4 | -11.2 | -4.4 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 2.2 | -0.6 |
| Production | -5.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 18.1 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | -15.3 | -16.3 | -18.0 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 0.1 | -2.8 |
| Number of Employees | -1.8 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 11.8 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | -9.8 | -4.4 | -6.7 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Business Activity in Six Months | 3.0 | 5.5 | -6.4 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 11.0 | 7.6 |
| Production | 36.2 | 24.9 | 22.1 | 47.3 | 42.7 | 37.1 | 32.4 |
| Future New Orders Growth Rate | 28.3 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 34.2 | 31.5 | 25.0 | 19.5 |
| Number of Employees | 18.3 | 9.2 | 15.3 | 32.6 | 28.6 | 23.1 | 19.1 |
| Wages & Benefits | 34.2 | 37.2 | 28.2 | 47.8 | 43.0 | 38.2 | 34.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
