Global| Aug 25 2014Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity and Outlook Deteriorate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its August Composite index covering Texas factory sector activity declined to 7.1 from 12.7 in July. The latest figure was the lowest since March. The deterioration reflected lower new [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its August Composite index covering Texas factory sector activity declined to 7.1 from 12.7 in July. The latest figure was the lowest since March. The deterioration reflected lower new orders, shipments and production. The length of the employee workweek also shortened but the employment level held fairly steady. Prices paid for finished goods improved to the highest level in six months as did wages & benefits.
The Dallas Fed also surveys expectations for factory sector conditions in six months. The business activity figure slipped m/m and remained in the sideways trend of the last nine months. Moving lower were the indexes covering the expected new orders growth rate and wages & benefits. Unfilled orders expectations also deteriorated but the expected shipments volume rose to the highest level since January.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Data for the Dallas Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 7.1 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| New Orders Volume | 2.2 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Wages & Benefits | 23.7 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 9.1 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 9.2 |
| Employment | 11.1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 |
| General Business Activity Six Months Ahead | 18.7 | 19.8 | 18.7 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
