Global| Feb 22 2006CPI Lifted By Energy & Food
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 0.7% gain in the January consumer price index (CPI-U) was the strongest for any month since last September and lifted the y/y gain to a firm 4.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% m/m rise. Energy prices ballooned 5.0% [...]
The 0.7% gain in the January consumer price index (CPI-U) was the strongest for any month since last September and lifted the y/y gain to a firm 4.0%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% m/m rise.
Energy prices ballooned 5.0% as gasoline prices rose 6.4% (27.4% y/y) and electricity prices surged 5.5% (15.1% y/y). The price charged by utilities for natural gas (34.5% y/y) also rose but both in January & February the spot market price for gas fell sharply. The average retail price paid for gasolinealso fell in February to $2.29 per gallon from $2.32 during January.
The 0.5% jump in food prices was the strongest for any month since last April and reflected a 1.7% (6.3% y/y) surge in fruits & vegetables as well as 0.5% increases in the prices of cereals (1.4% y/y) and dairy products (0.3% y/y).
Prices less food & energy rose a moderate 0.2% and matched Consensus expectations. Prices for core goods and for core services both rose 0.2%.
Apparel prices (-1.0% y/y) recovered 0.3% after a like decline during December and new vehicle prices rose 0.6% (-0.4% y/y) after two down months. Furniture & bedding prices (0.4% y/y) fell slightly as did appliance prices (+1.9% y/y). Medical care commodity prices doubled the December increase and rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y).
The 0.2% increase in core services prices was held back by an unchanged level of medical care services prices (4.1% y/y) but school tuition & fees jumped 0.7% (6.4% y/y). Shelter prices inched up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) while public transportation prices surged 1.3% (7.5% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.7%. Less food & energy prices rose a moderate 0.3%.
The minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.7% | -0.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Energy | 5.0% | -2.1% | 24.7% | 16.9% | 10.9% | 12.2% |
| Food | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.7% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | -0.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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