Global| May 17 2013Consumer Sentiment Improves To Recovery High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers are feeling much better about economic conditions. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-May jumped 9.6% (5.5% y/y) to 83.7, the highest level since July 2007. It compared to the consensus forecast [...]
Consumers are feeling much better about economic conditions. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-May jumped 9.6% (5.5% y/y) to 83.7, the highest level since July 2007. It compared to the consensus forecast for 77.2. During the last ten years, there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
This month's reading of current economic conditions gained 8.5% (11.8% y/y) to 97.5, the highest figure since October 2007. Last month's consumer expectations figure increased 10.3% (0.7% y/y) to 74.8.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Prospects for a Stronger Recovery is the title of Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin's speech and it is available here.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | May | Apr | Mar | May'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 83.7 | 76.4 | 78.6 | 79.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 97.5 | 89.9 | 90.7 | 87.2 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 74.8 | 67.8 | 70.8 | 74.3 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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