Global| Feb 09 2009Consumer Credit Growth Under Wraps
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit outstanding rose just 1.7% during all of last year. That growth in U.S. credit usage was its lowest since 1993. The slowdown was led by revolving credit outstanding (credit cards), [...]
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit outstanding rose just 1.7% during all of last year. That growth in U.S. credit usage was its lowest since 1993. The slowdown was led by revolving credit outstanding (credit cards), which fell $6.4 billion during December and the year-to-year growth of 2.6% was its lowest since 2004. Yearend, however, the three-month change was quite a bit weaker. It plummeted to -5.3%, a record rate of decline.
A $6.6 billion December decline in overall consumer credit outstanding followed a downwardly revised $11.0 billion November drop, reported last month as an $8.0 billion decline. These latest declines pulled the three-month growth in credit outstanding to -3.0% (AR) which was the lowest since the recession of 1990-91.
Non-revolving credit (autos & other consumer durables), which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the total, grew just 1.2% last year and in December it dropped for the fourth month in the last five.
These figures are the major input to the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector.
Credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Flow of Funds data are in Haver's FFUNDS database.
The Federal Reserve Board on Friday released additional terms and conditions--including loan rates and collateral haircuts--of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The Fed's release can be found here.
Raising the credit bar, or getting clubbed by it? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available here.
| Consumer Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR) | December | November | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $-6.6B | $-11.0B | 1.7% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Revolving | $-6.4B | $-6.9B | 2.6% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| Non-revolving | $-0.3B | $-4.2B | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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