Global| Aug 26 2008Consumer Confidence Up in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose a surprising 9.6% this month after a moderate 1.8% July gain. The rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for just a modest increase. The increase was fueled by a 23.7% [...]
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose a surprising 9.6% this month after a moderate 1.8% July gain. The rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for just a modest increase.
The increase was fueled by a 23.7% jump in the expectations component of the index which followed a moderate 3.1% July gain.
The percentage of respondents expecting business conditions to
worsen in six months dropped sharply and the percentage expecting fewer
jobs also fell to the lowest level since March. An improved 31.6% of
respondents planned to buy a major appliance within six months.
In contrast, the present conditions index fell slightly m/m to the lowest level since late 2003.
A slightly improved, but still negligible, 13.4% of respondents saw business conditions as good and that was near the lowest since early-2003. Jobs as plentiful were seen by a new low, since 2003, of 13.1% while 32.0% felt that jobs were hard to get. That was the highest since 2003.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months fell again, last month to 6.7%.
Papers from last week's Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming are available here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | August | July | Y/Y % | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 56.9 | 51.9 | -46.1 | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Situation | 63.2 | 65.8 | -51.4 | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | 52.8 | 42.7 | -40.8 | 86.4 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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