Global| Apr 25 2006Consumer Confidence Rose To Four Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The April Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board added 2.0% to the prior month's upwardly revised 4.7% increase. The increase to 109.6 compared to Consensus expectations for a decline to 106.2 and the latest was the [...]
The April Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board added 2.0% to the prior month's upwardly revised 4.7% increase. The increase to 109.6 compared to Consensus expectations for a decline to 106.2 and the latest was the highest since May 2002. The University of Michigan's preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation increased 2.2% and rose for the sixth consecutive month (19.7% y/y). The percentages of respondents who viewed jobs as plentiful (29.1%) and as hard to get (19.6) were at the respective highest and lowest since mid-2003.
The index of consumers' expectations rose another 1.8% (6.0% y/y) as expectations for employment rose but expectations for business conditions and income sagged. Expectations for stock prices rose .
Price inflation expected in twelve months rose to 5.2% from 4.8% expected in February but down sharply from the 6.8% expected last September.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 109.6 | 107.5 | 12.4% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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