Global| Sep 30 2008Consumer Confidence Rose Further in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For September, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence rose 2.2% to 59.8. That followed an upwardly revised 12.7% increase during August. The latest rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for a m/m [...]
For September, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence rose 2.2% to 59.8. That followed an upwardly revised 12.7% increase during August. The latest rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for a m/m decline to a reading of 55.0. The increase clearly does not reflect the recent turbulence in the financial markets.
The rise was fueled by an 11.8% m/m increase to 60.5 in the expectations component of the index. It came on the heels of a 26.7% jump during August. The latest index level was its highest since January.
The percentage of respondents expecting business conditions to
worsen in six months fell while the percentage expecting improvement
rose to its highest level (13.5%) this year. Fewer jobs were seen by
the lowest percentage since January but a reduced 28.2% of respondents
planned to buy a major appliance within six months.
In contrast, the present conditions index again fell sharply to the lowest level since late 2003.
A slightly improved, but still negligible, 12.5% of respondents perceived that business conditions were good. That was near the lowest since early-2003. Jobs as plentiful were seen by a new low, since 2003, of 12.2% while 32.8% felt that jobs were hard to get. That was the highest since 2003.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months fell again, last month to 6.2%, the lowest level since March.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | September | August | Y/Y % | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 59.8 | 58.5 | -39.9 | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Situation | 58.8 | 65.0 | -51.5 | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | 60.5 | 54.1 | -40.8 | 86.4 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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