Global| Jul 27 2004Consumer Confidence Rose Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards July Index of Consumer Confidence rose 3.2% to 106.1 following an upwardly revised 10.4% gain in June. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 102.0. During the last ten years there has been a 55% [...]
The Conference Board’s July Index of Consumer Confidence rose 3.2% to 106.1 following an upwardly revised 10.4% gain in June. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 102.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 55% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The index of consumer expectations jumped 5.0% (+22.6% y/y) after an upwardly revised 6.3% June gain. The present situation index added 0.6% (+69.0% y/y) to the 17.0% surge in June.
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by just 26.0% of respondents, the lowest level since September 2002. More jobs were expected in six months by 19.4% of respondents versus 16.4% last year and 18.3% in 2002.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 106.1 | 102.8 | 37.8% | 79.8 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
by Tom Moeller July 27, 2004
Sales of new one-family homes dipped 0.8% in June to 1.326M. The latest reading was still the second highest on record. Consensus estimates had been for a larger decline to 1.280 million. May sales were revised lower.
Sales fell hard in most of the country, down 14.2% in the Northeast (+16.7% y/y) and down 13.1% in the West (-8.2% y/y). Sales also fell 2.9% in the Midwest (+3.6% y/y). These declines were partially offset by a 9.6% gain in the South (+25.6% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home rose 1.7% to $209,900 (11.7% y/y).
| Homes Sales (000s, AR) | June | May | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Single-Family | 1,326 | 1,337 | 11.1% | 1,088 | 977 | 907 |
by Tom Moeller July 27, 2004
Chain store sales rose another 0.2% last week, pulling the sales index to its highest level since early May according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
Sales in July are 0.2% higher than the June average which fell 0.8% from May.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/24/04 | 07/17/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 440.2 | 439.2 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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