Global| Sep 26 2006Consumer Confidence Recovered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For September, the Conference Board indicated that consumer confidence recovered most of the prior month's drop, which was revised shallower, with a 4.3% increase to 104.5. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate increase [...]
For September, the Conference Board indicated that consumer confidence recovered most of the prior month's drop, which was revised shallower, with a 4.3% increase to 104.5. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate increase to 103.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation recovered 3.1% (15.7% y/y). The percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good (27.4%) rose back to the July level and the percentage that viewed jobs as hard to get (21.3%) rose for the second month.
The index measuring consumers' expectations also recovered the prior month's decline with a 5.5% rise (23.1% y/y). Expectations for better business conditions improved (16.3%) and more respondents expected an increase in jobs (14.4%).
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months dropped to 4.9%, the lowest level since March.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.What Happens To Banks When House Prices Fall? U.S. Regional Busts of the 1980s and 1990s from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Conference Board | September | August | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 104.5 | 100.2 | 19.4% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
