Global| Feb 26 2008Consumer Confidence Plummet, Expectations the Dreariest
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported today that consumer confidence plummeted this month. The 14.1% m/m decline to a reading of 75.0 was the largest m/m give back since September of 2005 and it dropped the level to its lowest since early [...]
The Conference Board reported today that consumer confidence
plummeted this month. The 14.1% m/m decline to a reading of 75.0 was
the largest m/m give back since September of 2005 and it dropped the
level to its lowest since early 2003. A consensus of economists foresaw
less of a decline to a level of 82.
A decline in the expectations component accounted for much of last month's decline in overall confidence. The 16.5% m/m drop followed an 8.6% January decline and lowered the expectations component to its lowest since early 1991. Expectations for business conditions dropped to a 36 year low while expectations for employment dropped to the lowest since 1980.
Respondents planning to buy an automobile within the next six months plummeted but plans to buy an appliance rose.
The present conditions index fell a somewhat lesser 12.0% m/m to the lowest level since late 2004. Just 18.5% of respondents saw business conditions as good, near the least since 2004. Jobs as plentiful were seen by 18.6% while 23.8% saw them as hard to get.
The expected inflation rate in twelve months was stable m/m at 5.3% but that still was up from the 5.1% expected rate during 2006 and 2007.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | February | January | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 75.0 | 87.3 | -32.6% | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Conditions | 100.6 | 114.3 | -26.6% | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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