Global| Jun 24 2008Consumer Confidence in June Again Fell Surprising Hard
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence this month fell by 13.3% m/m after a 7.5% drop in May. The decline nearly equaled the largest since 2005 and it more-than-doubled the decline that was generally expected. The June [...]
The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence this month fell by 13.3% m/m after a 7.5% drop in May. The decline nearly equaled the largest since 2005 and it more-than-doubled the decline that was generally expected.
The June decline left confidence at its lowest level since
early-1992.
The present conditions index fell 13.1% m/m to the lowest level since 2003.
Just 11.5% of respondents saw business conditions as good, the lowest since early-1992. Jobs as plentiful were seen by a much lessened 14.1% while 30.5% felt that jobs were hard to get, the highest since mid-2004.
The expectations component of the index fell a notably hard 13.3% m/m to a record low. The percentage of respondents expecting business conditions to worsen in six-months rose to 33.9% and the percentage expecting income to decline rose to 15.9%. Only 8.0% of respondents expected more jobs.
Expectations for the inflation rate held steady last month at 7.7%. That was the highest level in the series' 20 year history.
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time? is a 2006 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It answers "no" and it is available here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | June | May | Y/Y % | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 50.4 | 58.1 | -52.1 | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Situation | 64.5 | 74.2 | -50.3 | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | 41.0 | 47.3 | -53.8 | 86.4 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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