Global| Apr 26 2005Consumer Confidence Fell Due To Worsened Job Outlook
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's April Index of Consumer Confidence about matched Consensus expectations and fell a sharp 5.1% to 97.7 from an upwardly revised March level. It was the steepest one month decline since last August and pulled [...]
The Conference Board's April Index of Consumer Confidence about matched Consensus expectations and fell a sharp 5.1% to 97.7 from an upwardly revised March level. It was the steepest one month decline since last August and pulled Confidence to the lowest level since November.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The April index of consumer expectations dropped sharply to the lowest level since August 2003. Expectations continued to grow that in six months there would be fewer jobs.
The present situation index fell (+25.7% y/y) for the first month in the last six. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.3% of survey participants, down from the late 2003 high of 35.1%.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 97.7 | 103.0 | 5.1% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
