Global| Oct 31 2006Consumer Confidence Eased
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer confidence in October eased 0.5% to 105.4 following an upwardly revised 5.7% gain during September, the Conference Board reported. The decline ran counter to Consensus expectations for an increase to 107.9. During the last [...]
Consumer confidence in October eased 0.5% to 105.4 following an upwardly revised 5.7% gain during September, the Conference Board reported. The decline ran counter to Consensus expectations for an increase to 107.9.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation fell 2.8% (+15.7% y/y) and reversed most of the revised 3.6% September increase. The percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good (28.1%) actually rose to the highest since May but the percentage that viewed jobs as plentiful fell modestly. The percentage that viewed jobs as hard to get (22.0%) rose to the highest level this year.
The index measuring consumers' expectations added to its sharp September rise with a 1.8% increase (32.1% y/y). Expectations of better business conditions in six months rose to the highest (18.5%) since last November and more respondents expected more jobs (15.2%).
The expected inflation rate in twelve months was stable at 4.9%, the lowest since March.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | October | September | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 105.4 | 105.9 | 23.7% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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