Global| Oct 26 2004Consumer Confidence Down Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 4.0% in October to 92.8. It was the third consecutive monthly decline and was to the lowest level since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 93.5. [...]
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 4.0% in October to 92.8. It was the third consecutive monthly decline and was to the lowest level since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 93.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 50% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The present situation index fell a moderate 1.2% (+40.6% y/y) for the third consecutive down month but the index of consumer expectations fell a sharp 5.8% to 92.0 (+0.5% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by fewer survey participants, 27.8% versus 28.0% in September although 18.4% of participants expected fewer jobs in six months, the highest percentage since February.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 92.8 | 96.7 | 13.6% | 79.8 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2004
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline rose to $2.03 per gallon last week and has averaged $2.00 so far this month.
The inflation adjusted "real" price of gasoline remained well below the early 1981 peak, but the roughly 50% increase during the last two years rivals the gain leading to the prior peak.
Crude oil prices also rose further. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude surged yesterday to $55.23 per barrel versus $53.29/bbl. averaged last week and $45.95 in September.
Wholesale natural gas prices also rose yesterday to $7.12/mmbtu (+55.8% y/y) and have averaged $5.96 in October versus $4.98 in September.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics" from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Energy Prices | 10/19/04 | 12/31/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.) | $2.03 | $1.48 | 31.8% | $1.56 | $1.35 | $1.42 |
| Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel) | $53.29 | $32.55 | 76.6% | $32.78 | $31.23 | $19.38 |
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2004
Chain store sales fell another 0.6% last week and added to the 0.2% slip the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline dropped sales so far in October 0.2% below the September average which fell 0.7% versusAugust.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/23/04 | 10/16/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 433.9 | 436.4 | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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