Global| Feb 24 2004Consumer Confidence Down Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence for February slumped 9.4% versus January to 87.3. Confidence in January was revised down. The drop in Confidence was much greater than Consensus expectations for a slight decline to [...]
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence for February slumped 9.4% versus January to 87.3. Confidence in January was revised down.
The drop in Confidence was much greater than Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 93.0. It roughly matched the 10.3% decline in the preliminary February reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y % change in real PCE.
The reading of the present situation fell 7.9% to 73.1 (+15.1% y/y). The index of consumer expectations fell 10.2% m/m to 96.8 (47.3% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 32.1% of respondents. That was versus 31.9% in 2003 and 24.3% in 2002. The low for this series was in 2000 when 11.2% of respondents viewed jobs as hard to get.
Expectations for business conditions in six months fell sharply with only 21.8% expecting conditions to improve, the lowest since September.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 87.3 | 96.8 | 34.7% | 79.6 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
by Tom Moeller February 24, 2004
Chain store sales slipped 0.2% last week following jumps during the prior two weeks of 1.4% and 1.8%, according to the ICSC-UBS survey.
Sales so far during February are up 1.9% versus the average January level.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the ICSC-UBS measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 02/21/04 | 02/14/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 437.9 | 438.9 | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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