Global| Sep 28 2004Consumer Confidence Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards September Index of Consumer Confidence slipped another 1.9% to 96.8 following a 6.6% decline in August that was revised slightly shallower versus the initial report. Consensus expectations had been for a reading [...]
The Conference Board’s September Index of Consumer Confidence slipped another 1.9% to 96.8 following a 6.6% decline in August that was revised slightly shallower versus the initial report. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 99.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 50% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The present situation index fell sharply for the second month, by 5.2% (+60.0% y/y). The index of consumer expectations actually rose slightly m/m (+10.3% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.3% of respondents versus 26.0% in August and the low of 25.7% in July. The percentage of respondents expecting more jobs in six months improved modestly m/m.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 96.8 | 98.7 | 25.7% | 79.8 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2004
Chain store sales fell another 0.3% last week as Hurricane Jeanne hit Florida's east coast on Friday, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The decline followed a 1.1% drop the prior week prompted by Hurricane Ivan.
The decline lowered September sales so far 0.7% below the August average which was unchanged from July.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/25/04 | 09/18/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 433.5 | 434.7 | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2004
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline rose for the second consecutive week to $1.92 per gallon, up 2.7% from the prior week and up from $1.88 averaged in August.
The inflation adjusted "real" price of gasoline remained below well below the early 1981 peak, but the roughly 50% increase during the last two years rivals the gain leading to the prior peak.
The rise accompanied a jump in crude oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude surged yesterday to $49.65 per barrel versus roughly $43.00/bbl. early in the month. In August WTI crude averaged $44.94/bbl.
Wholesale natural gas prices last week were $5.45/mmbtu (+21.4% y/y) versus the May high of $6.54.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
| Energy Prices | 09/27/04 | 12/31/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.) | $1.92 | $1.48 | 20.5% | $1.56 | $1.35 | $1.42 |
| Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel) | $49.65 | $32.55 | 74.6% | $32.78 | $31.23 | $19.38 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
