Global| Jul 30 2002Consumer Confidence Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in July. June's level was little revised. The decline reflected lower readings of the present situation as well as expectations. The 8.7% m/m decline in the [...]
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in July. June's level was little revised.
The decline reflected lower readings of the present situation as well as expectations.
The 8.7% m/m decline in the Conference Board measure was the largest since October and was greater than the decline in the Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan.
During the last five years there has been a 80% correlation between the level of Consumer Confidence and the y/y percent change in real PCE. That's the same as the correlation between Consumer Sentiment and PCE.
The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 97.1 | 106.3 | -16.5% | 106.6 | 139.0 | 135.3 |
by Tom Moeller July 30, 2002
Chain store sales fell 0.4%, giving back all of the prior week's gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
Despite the dip, July sales so far are 0.3% above the June average versus a 2.0% gain in June vs. May.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 7/27/02 | 7/20/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 414.5 | 416.1 | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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