Global| Nov 30 2007Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its November business barometer improved to 52.9 and the 3.2 point rise from October reversed most of that month's deterioration. The latest figure was better than expected. [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its November business barometer improved to 52.9 and the 3.2 point rise from October reversed most of that month's deterioration. The latest figure was better than expected. Nevertheless, during the last four months the readings remained near or well below the highs of earlier this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the index and the three-month change in US factory sector industrial production. There has been an 85% correlation between the Chicago figure and the national ISM index (due for release on Monday) and that is the highest correlation of all the regional series with the Nat'l index.
The production component of the Chicago measure gained back most of a sharp drop in October. New orders remained at the October level which was near the lowest since February. The employment index similarly rose but the gain followed three months of decline and the index was to nowhere near the high reached back in July.
The prices paid index rose sharply m/m to the highest level since July of 2006.
| Chicago PMI | November | October | Nov. '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 52.9 | 49.7 | 51.2 | 56.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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