Global| Aug 29 2014Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Surges
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their August index of General Business Conditions jumped to 64.3 this month and more-than-reversed an unrevised drop to 52.6 in July. It was the highest level in three months and exceeded [...]
Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their August index of General Business Conditions jumped to 64.3 this month and more-than-reversed an unrevised drop to 52.6 in July. It was the highest level in three months and exceeded expectations for 56.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index, comparable to the overall index to be released Tuesday. The figure increased to 63.0, the highest level since April 2011. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
Movement in the component series was generally positive. The production component (74.7) surged to its highest level since 2004 while inventories (61.2) gained to the highest level since 2006. New orders (65.6) improved to the highest level in three months and order backlogs (58.3) mostly recovered two months of decline. The supplier delivery series (57.6) indicated the slowest product delivery speeds since March. Moving the other way, the employment component (55.9) reversed increases during the last two months.
The index of prices paid notched up to 60.2 but remained down versus the highs earlier this year Nineteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while four percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure using the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 63.0 | 54.9 | 60.7 | 52.8 | 54.3 | 54.8 | 61.3 |
| General Business Barometer | 64.3 | 52.6 | 62.6 | 54.1 | 56.1 | 54.6 | 62.7 |
| Production | 74.7 | 51.4 | 70.1 | 54.8 | 58.3 | 57.6 | 66.6 |
| New Orders | 65.6 | 55.7 | 65.1 | 58.3 | 59.3 | 55.1 | 65.3 |
| Order Backlogs | 58.3 | 45.2 | 55.4 | 47.8 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 55.5 |
| Inventories | 61.2 | 54.3 | 57.0 | 44.0 | 45.7 | 51.4 | 55.2 |
| Employment | 55.9 | 59.8 | 58.4 | 55.3 | 55.5 | 55.3 | 59.5 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.6 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 51.4 | 52.5 | 54.9 | 60.0 |
| Prices Paid | 60.2 | 59.0 | 65.9 | 64.1 | 59.9 | 62.2 | 72.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
