Global| Apr 30 2014Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds To Six-Month High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Economic activity in the Midwest picked up this month. Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their April index of General Business Conditions rose to 63.0 after an unrevised fall to 55.9 in March. The figure was the highest since [...]
Economic activity in the Midwest picked up this month. Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their April index of General Business Conditions rose to 63.0 after an unrevised fall to 55.9 in March. The figure was the highest since October and beat expectations for 56.8, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index, comparable to the overall index to be released tomorrow. The figure increased to 59.4, a five month high, from 54.6 in March. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
Component increases in the survey were broad-based and led by the new orders series (68.7) and the production index (70.5). The employment figure (57.8) rose to the top of its recent range and the higher inventory figure of 49.5 showed less decumulation than during March. Supplier delivery speeds picked up, producing a plunge in the index to its lowest level (50.6) since June.
The index of prices paid slipped to its lowest level (55.3) in a year. Twenty four percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 2 percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure using the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
Nowcasting using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions | 59.4 | 54.6 | 58.5 | 48.8 | 54.3 | 54.8 | 61.3 |
| General Business Conditions | 63.0 | 55.9 | 59.8 | 49.6 | 56.1 | 54.6 | 62.7 |
| Production | 70.5 | 61.7 | 59.6 | 51.6 | 58.3 | 57.6 | 66.6 |
| New Orders | 68.7 | 58.8 | 63.6 | 53.8 | 59.3 | 55.1 | 65.3 |
| Employment | 57.8 | 50.0 | 59.3 | 49.0 | 55.5 | 55.3 | 59.5 |
| Order Backlogs | 54.9 | 50.4 | 53.7 | 41.2 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 55.5 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.6 | 58.6 | 57.4 | 48.5 | 52.5 | 54.9 | 60.0 |
| Inventories | 49.5 | 44.0 | 52.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 | 51.4 | 55.2 |
| Prices Paid | 55.2 | 55.7 | 59.1 | 50.8 | 59.9 | 62.2 | 72.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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