Global| Jul 29 2016Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer slipped to 55.8 this month following an unrevised jump during June to 56.8. The figure remained near the highest level since January 2015, and exceeded expectations [...]
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer slipped to 55.8 this month following an unrevised jump during June to 56.8. The figure remained near the highest level since January 2015, and exceeded expectations for 54.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released Monday. Our figure increased to 54.2, the highest level since October. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The production series fell to 54.6 after a jump to 56.3, and the new orders index declined to 59.3 from a strong 63.2. The order backlog measure fell to 56.2 from 59.7. Working the other way, the inventory index increased to 52.0 from 50.0, and the supplier delivery series gained to 53.1, indicating slightly slower product delivery speeds.
The employment figure rebounded to 52.2, its highest level since March. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.
The prices paid reading eased to 55.1, but remained up sharply from the February low of 41.1. A lessened 20% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a slightly higher 11% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Barometer | 55.8 | 56.8 | 49.3 | 53.7 | 50.3 | 60.7 | 56.0 |
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 54.2 | 52.9 | 48.0 | 53.3 | 51.6 | 59.3 | 54.2 |
| Production | 54.6 | 56.3 | 47.4 | 58.8 | 52.5 | 64.5 | 58.2 |
| New Orders | 59.3 | 63.2 | 48.8 | 56.8 | 50.4 | 63.8 | 59.1 |
| Order Backlogs | 56.2 | 59.7 | 47.7 | 47.0 | 44.4 | 54.2 | 48.8 |
| Inventories | 52.0 | 50.0 | 37.9 | 53.7 | 52.1 | 55.9 | 45.6 |
| Employment | 52.2 | 45.0 | 48.3 | 47.1 | 50.3 | 56.0 | 55.6 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 53.1 | 50.0 | 57.8 | 50.0 | 52.5 | 56.5 | 52.5 |
| Prices Paid | 55.1 | 55.7 | 56.5 | 52.4 | 46.8 | 61.0 | 59.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
