Global| Oct 31 2011Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Dips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory sector activity around Chicago developed less forward momentum this month. The Purchasing Mangers Association of Chicago indicated in its October Business Survey that the Business Barometer Index fell somewhat to 58.4 from [...]
Factory sector activity around Chicago developed less forward momentum this month. The Purchasing Mangers Association of Chicago indicated in its October Business Survey that the Business Barometer Index fell somewhat to 58.4 from 60.4 in September. The figure disappointed Consensus expectations for 59.2. Regardless, with a reading above 50, the figure still indicated positive growth in activity. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-Adjusted figure based on the Chicago Fed numbers and it also slipped to 59.4 last month from 60.4 in September. The ISM figure will be reported tomorrow.
Weakness in the component series was led by sharp declines in inventories and in new orders. Production fell slightly. Conversely, the speed of vendor deliveries slowed, as indicated by a higher index. The employment series also rose to a positive 62.3 which was the highest level in six months. During the last ten years there has been a 79% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector employment. The prices paid series also rose modestly to 66.0, an indication that prices continue to move higher.
The Chicago PMI figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Household Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers (SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Adjusted Index | 59.4 | 60.4 | 56.0 | 60.8 | 59.1 | 41.6 | 47.1 |
| Business Barometer Index | 58.4 | 60.4 | 56.5 | 60.2 | 61.3 | 43.4 | 46.8 |
| New Orders | 61.3 | 65.3 | 56.9 | 63.2 | 63.6 | 45.3 | 46.8 |
| Employment | 62.3 | 60.6 | 52.1 | 55.2 | 55.2 | 34.6 | 41.4 |
| Production | 63.4 | 63.9 | 57.8 | 67.9 | 65.1 | 45.0 | 48.1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 55.8 | 51.9 | 60.5 | 63.1 | 61.0 | 50.0 | 52.7 |
| Inventories | 54.4 | 60.3 | 52.9 | 54.7 | 50.5 | 33.4 | 46.6 |
| Prices Paid Index | 66.0 | 62.3 | 68.6 | 67.8 | 65.4 | 41.4 | 73.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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