Global| Nov 30 2017Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Backpedals
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for November declined to 63.9 from 66.2 in October. It was at the lowest level in three months, yet up from 57.2 one year ago. A decline to 63.0 had been expected in the Action [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for November declined to 63.9 from 66.2 in October. It was at the lowest level in three months, yet up from 57.2 one year ago. A decline to 63.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Based on these figures Haver Analytics constructs an index that is comparable to the ISM Composite index, to be released tomorrow. This figure increased to 63.7 from 60.2 in October. During the last ten years, there has been a 63% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Following storm disruptions in October, month-to-month performance in the component series was mixed. The new orders index more than reversed its October increase and order backlogs fell sharply. To the upside were the production, inventories and supplier deliveries indexes.
The employment index recovered the prior month's decline with a rise to the highest level in six months. An increased 21% (NSA) of respondents indicated a rise in hiring while a sharply lessened 9% reported a decline. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index notched higher after a sharp October decline. A lessened 38% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a lower five percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Barometer | 63.9 | 66.2 | 65.2 | 57.2 | 53.1 | 50.3 | 60.7 |
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 63.7 | 60.2 | 61.3 | 55.9 | 52.0 | 51.6 | 59.3 |
| Production | 70.1 | 69.5 | 63.3 | 58.0 | 54.7 | 52.5 | 64.5 |
| New Orders | 63.2 | 69.9 | 67.5 | 62.9 | 55.7 | 50.4 | 63.8 |
| Order Backlogs | 57.2 | 69.4 | 65.3 | 52.9 | 47.4 | 44.4 | 54.2 |
| Inventories | 59.7 | 53.0 | 56.9 | 55.5 | 47.2 | 52.1 | 55.9 |
| Employment | 57.1 | 46.7 | 56.0 | 49.7 | 49.4 | 50.3 | 56.0 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 68.5 | 61.7 | 62.6 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 52.5 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid | 68.5 | 67.2 | 74.3 | 57.0 | 53.1 | 46.8 | 61.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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