Global| Jun 30 2008Chicago Purchasing Managers' Barometer Slightly Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its June business barometer improved, for the fifth straight month, to a still low level of 49.6 from 49.1 in May. Consensus expectations had been for weaker reading of 48.0. [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its June business barometer improved, for the fifth straight month, to a still low level of 49.6 from 49.1 in May. Consensus expectations had been for weaker reading of 48.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the index and the three-month change in US factory sector industrial production. There has been an 85% correlation between the Chicago figure and the national ISM index (due for release tomorrow) and that is the highest correlation of all the regional series with the national ISM index.
The components of the overall index had varying performance. To the upside was the employment index which rose to 46.7, the highest level since January. Also up were the inventories and vendor deliveries components.
To the downside was the production component to the lowest level since early 2002. Also down slightly were the new orders and the orders backlog components.
The prices paid index dipped slightly 85.5 which was still near the recent highs. During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the price index and the three-month change in the finished goods PPI.
Last week's speech titled Global Economic Integration and Decoupling by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn can be found here.
The minutes to the Fed meetings held on March 14 and 16, regarding Bear Stearns, are available here and here.
| Chicago PMI | June | May | June '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 49.6 | 49.1 | 58.7 | 54.4 | 56.8 | 60.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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