Global| Sep 30 2008Chicago Purchasing Managers' Barometer Dipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For September, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its business barometer dipped. However, the 2.1% decline in the index to 56.7 reversed only a small part of its 14.0% m/m jump during August. Consensus [...]
For September, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its business barometer dipped. However, the 2.1% decline in the index to 56.7 reversed only a small part of its 14.0% m/m jump during August. Consensus expectations had been for a larger decline to a level of 53.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the business barometer and the three-month change in US factory sector industrial production. There has been an 85% correlation between the Chicago figure and the national ISM index (due for release tomorrow) and that is the highest correlation of all the regional series with the national ISM index.
The largest decline came from the inventory sub-series. New orders and order backlogs also fell sharply. The production series reversed some of its recent gain but the employment index rose sharply to its highest level since March.
The prices paid index was roughly unchanged near its lowest level this year. During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the price index and the three-month change in the finished goods PPI.
House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Chicago PMI | September | August | September '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 56.7 | 57.9 | 53.2 | 54.4 | 56.8 | 60.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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