Global| Sep 22 2014Chicago Fed National Activity Index Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for August eased to -0.21 from a downwardly revised 0.26 in July. The latest level was the first negative reading since January. The three-month moving [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index
(CFNAI) for August eased to -0.21 from a downwardly revised 0.26 in July.
The latest level was the first negative reading since January. The
three-month moving average fell to 0.07, its lowest point in six months.
During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the
Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Two of the four component series weakened last month. The Production & Income reading reversed its July strength and turned negative for the first time since April. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure also moved down to zero, its weakest level since April of last year. Working the other way, the Personal Consumption & Housing series improved to its least negative reading since April. The Sales, Orders & Inventories index rose to the highest point since March. The Chicago Fed reported that during August, a lessened 45 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the overall index while an increased 40 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.21 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.22 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.16 | -0.11 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.15 | -0.21 | -0.29 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Production & Income | -0.17 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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