Global| Dec 22 2014Chicago Fed National Activity Index Reaches Expansion High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for November improved to 0.73 from 0.31 during October, revised from 0.14. It was the highest level since December, 2006. The three-month moving average [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI)
for November improved to 0.73 from 0.31 during October, revised from 0.14. It was
the highest level since December, 2006. The three-month moving average rose to
0.48, its highest point since May, 2010. During the last ten years, there has
been a 75% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real
GDP.
The driver for the increase was the Production & Income component rising to 0.64, its highest level since May, 2010. The Personal Consumption & Housing series held fairly steady at -0.10. The remaining components eased. The Sales, Orders & Inventories series backpedaled to 0.02. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure worked lower to 0.17.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Declining Labor Force Participation and Its Implications for Unemployment and Employment Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.73 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.70 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.48 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.35 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.15 | -0.20 | -0.29 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Production & Income | 0.64 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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