Global| Jan 23 2015Chicago Fed National Activity Index Pulls Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December declined to -0.05 from its decade's long high of 0.92 in November, revised from 0.73. The three-month moving average declined to a still-high [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National
Activity Index (CFNAI) for December declined to -0.05 from its decade's long
high of 0.92 in November, revised from 0.73. The three-month moving average
declined to a still-high 0.39. During the last ten years, there has been a 76%
correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Lack of improvement was evident in each of the component series last month. The Production & Income component posted the largest decline to -0.12 following a November surge. The Personal Consumption & Housing series also fell to -0.12, its lowest level in three months. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure worked lower to 0.16 while Sales, Orders and Inventories were unchanged. The three-month moving average of the total slipped. The Fed reported that forty of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 45 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'13 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.05 | 0.92 | 0.29 | -0.18 | 0.21 | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 0.20 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.12 | -0.03 | -0.09 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.20 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Production & Income | -0.12 | 0.71 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.10 | -0.10 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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