Global| Nov 22 2002Chicago Fed National Activity Index Hit a Soft Spot in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell last month to its lowest level since last November. The reading pulled the three-month moving average of the CFNAI down to -0.55, a level consistent with roughly 2% growth in real [...]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell last month to its lowest level since last November.
The reading pulled the three-month moving average of the CFNAI down to -0.55, a level consistent with roughly 2% growth in real GDP.. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and quarterly growth in real GDP.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, mfg. & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index click here.
A discussion of the CFNAI and its role as a business cycle indicator can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | Oct | Sept | Oct '01 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.81 | -0.39 | -1.12 | -1.10 | -0.18 | 0.27 |
by Tom Moeller November 22, 2002
The index of mortgage applications to refinance, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, surged last week back to near record territory.
Mortgage applications for home purchase also rose, but just slightly. Applications for purchase have been moving irregularly lower since peaking this past Spring.. The indexes equated to $680 bil. of mortgage originations in 4Q01 of which $476 bil. then was for refinancing (70%) and $204 bil. was for purchase.. The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.94% versus 6.93% averaged last year. The effective rate, including points, was 6.23%.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 11/15/02 | 10/18/02 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,200.2 | 1,128.3 | 625.6 | 322.7 | 352.0 |
| Purchase | 345.0 | 361.5 | 304.9 | 302.7 | 275.8 |
| Refinancing | 6,174.1 | 5,588.7 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 | 795.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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