Global| May 20 2019Chicago Fed National Activity Index Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to -0.45 during April after rising to 0.05 in March. Continuing to decline was the three-month moving average to -0.32, its lowest point since May [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to -0.45 during April after rising to 0.05 in March. Continuing to decline was the three-month moving average to -0.32, its lowest point since May 2016. During the last ten years, there has been a 31% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The National Activity Index Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, deteriorated to -0.22. That was the lowest level since October 2016, down from the peak of 0.37 in December 2017.
Deterioration in the April index was led by the Production and Income series to -0.44, the lowest level since May of last year. The Personal Consumption & Housing reading was negative, though not by as in has been recently. The Sales, Orders & Housing figure eased m/m to a fairly neutral reading. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series improved moderately m/m and has been rising since December.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Activity Index (percent) | -0.45 | 0.05 | -0.57 | 0.42 | 0.19 | 0.15 | -0.11 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.32 | -0.24 | -0.26 | 0.47 | -- | -- | -- |
| Diffusion Index | -0.22 | -0.16 | -0.16 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| Production & Income | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.30 | 0.33 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.11 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | 0.06 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | -0.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
