Global| Aug 27 2018Chicago Fed National Activity Index Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to 0.13 during July from 0.48 in June. The decline came after two months of great variability. The three-month moving average fell to 0.05, its lowest [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to 0.13 during July from 0.48 in June. The decline came after two months of great variability. The three-month moving average fell to 0.05, its lowest level since September of last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the component series was mostly negative during July. The Production & Income reading fell to 0.05 following two months of heightened variability caused by changing utility output. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure slipped to 0.03 and has been fairly weak for several months. The Personal Consumption & Housing indicator eased to -0.07 and was down sharply versus its recent high during March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose modestly to 0.12. after two months of decline.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Activity Index (percent) | 0.13 | 0.48 | -0.46 | -0.18 | 0.13 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.07 | -- | -- | -- |
| Production & Income | 0.05 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.05 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.00 | -0.04 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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