Global| Jul 21 2008Chicago Fed Index Improved Somewhat
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June was again negative. The reading of -0.60 was, however, the least negative since January. It left the three-month moving average [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June was again negative. The reading of -0.60 was, however, the least negative since January. It left the three-month moving average of the figure at -0.93, which also was its least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available here and the historical data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The improvement in June again owed to production-related indicators. Employment, consumption and housing continued to make roughly the same negative contributions to the CFNAI during June.
Thirty-one of the of the eighty-five indicators in the index made positive contributions to the June index while 54 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
Monetary Policy's Third Interest Rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Chicago Fed | June | May | June '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.60 | -1.06 | -0.19 | -0.42 | -0.05 | 0.26 |
| 3-Month Average | -0.93 | -1.08 | -0.22 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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