Global| Oct 30 2015Chicago Business Barometer Nears This Year's High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Business Barometer rebounded to 56.2 in October following its sharp September decline to 48.7. This is the highest reading since January. Expectations had been for 49.7 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
The Chicago Business Barometer rebounded to 56.2 in October following its sharp September decline to 48.7. This is the highest reading since January. Expectations had been for 49.7 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The improvement contrasts with weaker readings in other major metropolitan areas. Haver Analytics calculates an index, based on the Chicago index, that is comparable to the ISM figure to be released Monday. It jumped to 56.9, the highest level this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 62% correlation between the Chicago index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Notable improvement was realized in the production and new orders components. Inventories also showed a sharp gain but each of the other component series fell. The employment series eased just moderately. During the last ten years, there has been an 86% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index improved modestly but remained below the beak-even level of 50 for the third straight month. An improved 13% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 30% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 56.9 | 50.1 | 55.7 | 63.3 | 59.4 | 54.3 | 54.8 |
| General Business Barometer | 56.2 | 48.7 | 54.4 | 64.5 | 60.7 | 56.1 | 54.6 |
| Production | 63.4 | 43.6 | 59.0 | 67.8 | 64.5 | 58.3 | 57.6 |
| New Orders | 59.4 | 49.5 | 56.7 | 69.2 | 63.8 | 59.2 | 55.1 |
| Order Backlogs | 45.5 | 46.5 | 46.2 | 54.3 | 54.2 | 48.9 | 48.0 |
| Inventories | 60.5 | 52.9 | 61.3 | 61.1 | 56.0 | 45.7 | 51.4 |
| Employment | 50.6 | 52.3 | 49.1 | 58.9 | 56.0 | 55.6 | 55.3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.8 | 52.4 | 52.6 | 59.7 | 56.5 | 52.5 | 54.8 |
| Prices Paid | 44.3 | 41.5 | 47.3 | 60.7 | 61.0 | 59.9 | 62.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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