Global| Aug 01 2007Challenger Layoffs Retreated
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that job cut announcements in July fell to the lowest level in a year, and that was the lowest level since 2000. The 23.1% m/m decline to 42,897 announcements followed a 21.6% decline during June. [...]
Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that job cut announcements in July fell to the lowest level in a year, and that was the lowest level since 2000. The 23.1% m/m decline to 42,897 announcements followed a 21.6% decline during June.
Job cut announcements fell across most industries such as apparel (-32.0% y/y), chemical (-81.3% y/y), consumer goods (-43.9% y/y), industrial goods (-49.7% y/y), and services (-69.05 y/y. Increases in layoffs m/m occurred in the electronics, retail, and transportation industries.
During the last ten years there has been a 79% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans nearly doubled last month versus June and they were up sharply from a year ago.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | July | June | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 42,897 | 55,726 | 12.0% | 839,822 | 1,072,054 | 1,039,935 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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