Global| Feb 03 2010Challenger Indicates Labor Market Deterioration
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier labor market improvement paused last month as announced job cuts rose and hiring plans fell, according to the outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas. Their measure of job cut announcements increased last month to [...]
Earlier labor market improvement paused last month as announced job cuts rose and hiring plans fell, according to the outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas. Their measure of job cut announcements increased last month to 71,482 but that still was well below the high of 241,748 in January of last year. Layoffs increased sharply in the pharmaceutical, retail and telecommunications industries.
Challenger also samples firms' hiring plans. During January, plans fell slightly m/m but were up nearly one-third from the year-ago level. Plans picked up sharply in the electronics and entertainment/leisure industries. The net of hires less layoffs fell slightly m/m but remained near its ebb in 2007.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three-month moving average of announced job cuts and the three-month change payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Recession in Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | January | December | November | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 71,482 | 45,094 | 50,349 | -70.4% | 1,288,030 | 1,223,993 | 768,264 |
| Announced Hiring Plans | 31,381 | 35,592 | 10,076 | 30.9 | 272,573 | 118,600 | 365,583 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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