Global| Apr 11 2006Chain Store Sales Surge Despite Gasoline Price Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales surged last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, as consumers upped spending by 1.8% following five consecutive weeks of softness. The jump raised sales in early April [...]
Chain store sales surged last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, as consumers upped spending by 1.8% following five consecutive weeks of softness.
The jump raised sales in early April 0.7% above the March average which rose 0.7% from February.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales slipped 0.4% (+0.5% /y) after the prior week's 0.5% rise. The March average was unchanged versus February.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The rise in store sales last week occurred despite a ten cent increase in retail gasoline prices to $2.68 per gallon. That jump followed a nine cent rise the prior week and raised the April average to $2.64, up 8.7% from $2.43 during March. In spot market trading yesterday gasoline prices rose another seven cents from the prior week's average.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/08/06 | 04/01/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 470.6 | 462.3 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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