Global| Nov 08 2005Chain Store Sales Jumped As Gas Prices Fell Another Dime
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, chain store sales posted the largest gain since April according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The 1.0% jump pulled the starting point for November sales 1.3% above the October average [...]
The sales jump was aided by another ten cent drop in the average US retail price of regular gasoline to $2.38 per gallon (+18.7 y/y). Retail gas prices are down 22.5% since the early September peak of $3.07 but during the last several days the spot market price for gasoline has bottomed out, suggesting that further retail price declines will be limited.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline. The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.6% (-3.4% y/y) during the latest week following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain the prior week.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/05/05 | 10/29/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 456.1 | 451.6 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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