Global| Oct 27 2009Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases For Third Consecutive Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Home prices have firmed along with the improvement seen in home sales. The August S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets rose 1.0% from July following like gains during the prior two months. The monthly [...]
Home prices have firmed along with the improvement seen in
home sales. The August S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets rose 1.0% from July
following like gains during the prior two months. The monthly increase
lowered the y/y drop to 11.4% which was
less-than-expected by Consensus. Nevertheless, prices were down by
nearly one-third since the peak in May 2006. Not seasonally adjusted
prices were even stronger m/m and posted a 1.2% increase after a 1.6%
gain during July.
The Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 10
metropolitan areas, which has a longer history and dates back to 1987,
also firmed last month by 1.0% (-10.7% y/y). This measure also was down
by nearly one-third since the 2006 peak.
The Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is value-weighted. A greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes and the series dates back only to 2001. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database. The latest press release is available here . An overview of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found here.
Less Weak Regions:Home prices in some areas
of the country have firmed lately though they remain down year-to-year.
Prices in Denver rose for their sixth month (-2.0% y/y) while
in Dallas prices rose for the fifth consecutive month. That pared the
y/y change to -1.3% from its worst of -5.5% this past March. Boston
prices also were higher during August (-4.2% y/y) while in Chicago home
prices were quite strong m/m, rising 1.2%, but they still were off
12.7% y/y. In the New York region prices ticked up 0.3% m/m (-9.6% y/y)
while in Charlotte, North Carolina prices slipped 0.4% (-8.6% y/y). In
Cleveland, Ohio, though prices fell 1.0% m/m during August, the y/y
decline amounted to just 2.9%. In the Washington, D.C. metro area
prices rose for the fourth straight month. The 1.2% increase left them
off 7.9% y/y.
Weakest Regions: Several other areas of the country have shown limited improvement. Though home prices in Phoenix, Arizona rose for the third consecutive month they remained off 25.2% y/y. Home prices in Las Vegas, Nevada continued their rapid rate of decline with a 0.8% m/m drop (-29.9% y/y) and were down by roughly one-half from their peak. Home prices in Miami also rose for the third straight month but were off 18.9% y/y while home prices in Los Angeles also firmed m/m (-12.0% y/y). In Tampa, Florida prices also rose for the third month but remained off 17.7% y/y. In Detroit prices rose for the first time since early 2006 (-22.7% y/y) yet prices were off by nearly one-half from the peak.In San Francisco prices firmed for the fourth straight month and that eased the y/y decline to 12.6%.
The monthly S&P Case Shiller Home Price data can be found in Haver's USECON database and the regional data is available in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100) | August m/m | July m/m | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 1.0% | 1.2% | -11.4% | -15.8% | -3.8% | 7.6% |
| Regional Indicators | ||||||
| Atlanta | 0.5 | 1.6 | -10.6 | -8.5 | 0.7 | 4.3 |
| Boston | 1.0 | 0.6 | -4.2 | -5.7 | -4.0 | -1.8 |
| Chicago | 1.2 | 2.1 | -12.7 | -10.0 | -1.0 | 6.6 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -3.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Denver | 1.0 | 0.7 | -2.0 | -4.9 | -1.7 | 2.1 |
| Los Angeles | 1.3 | 1.2 | -12.0 | -24.2 | -5.2 | 11.6 |
| New York | 0.3 | 0.9 | -9.6 | -7.4 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| San Francisco | 2.6 | 2.8 | -12.6 | -24.3 | -4.5 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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