Global| Nov 24 2009Case-Shiller Home Price Gains Slow After Three Months Of Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The rise in home prices slowed with the recent plateau in home sales. The September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets edged up 0.3% after an average 1.0% rise during each of the prior three months. [...]
The rise in
home prices slowed with the recent plateau in home sales. The September
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite
Index of twenty metro-markets edged up 0.3% after an average 1.0% rise
during each of the prior three months. The latest increase lessened the
y/y decline to 9.4% from its worst of -19.0% in January. Consensus
expectations had been for a y/y decline of 9.1% for March. In addition,
prices were down by nearly one-third since the peak in May 2006. Not
seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.3% during September after a 1.2%
August increase.
The
Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 10
metropolitan areas, which has a longer history and dates back to 1987,
also firmed last month by 1.0% (-10.7% y/y). This measure also is down
by nearly one-third since the 2006 peak.
The Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is value-weighted. A greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes and the series dates back only to 2001. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database. The latest press release is available here . An overview of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found here.· Home prices in some areas of the country have firmed lately though they remain down year-to-year.
Prices in Chicago were quite firm for the third straight month and rose 1.1% (-10.7% y/y) and in San Francisco prices have been strong for five months (-7.9% y/y). In San Diego prices also were up solidly for the fourth month (-5.7% y/y) and prices in Minneapolis were quite strong for the last four months. However, they remain off 11.3% from one year ago. In Phoenix prices rose for the fourth straight month (-21.9% y/y). In Los Angeles home prices also were stronger and rose for the fourth month (-9.0% y/y).
The monthly S&P Case Shiller Home Price data can be found in Haver's USECON database and the regional data is available in the REGIONAL database.
Do Macroeconomic Announcements Move Inflation Forecasts? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100) | September m/m | August m/m | July m/m | Sept. y/y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | -9.4% | -15.7% | -3.8% | 7.6% |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.6 | -9.4 | -8.5 | 0.7 | 4.3 |
| Boston | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -3.4 | -5.7 | -4.0 | -1.8 |
| Chicago | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | -10.7 | -10.0 | -1.0 | 6.6 |
| Dallas | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -1.2 | -3.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Denver | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -1.2 | -4.9 | -1.7 | 2.1 |
| Los Angeles | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -9.0 | -24.2 | -5.2 | 11.6 |
| New York | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -9.0 | -7.4 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| San Francisco | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -7.9 | -24.3 | -4.5 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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