Global| Dec 17 2012Business Economists Projections Are Little-Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association for Business Economics held the expectation for real GDP growth next year at 2.1%, the same as in October's survey. However, these are lowered figures versus 2.7% in the May tally. That follows an unrevised [...]
The National Association for Business Economics held the expectation for real GDP growth next year at 2.1%, the same as in October's survey. However, these are lowered figures versus 2.7% in the May tally. That follows an unrevised projection for 2.2% growth for this year. Quarterly growth still is expected to improve to 3.0% by the end of next year. Consumer spending still is seen rising 2.0% in 2013, but not 2.5% as projected in May. Growth in producers' durable equipment was lowered slightly to 5.0% and remained down from double-digits early in the recovery.
Expectations for housing starts in 2013 were raised slightly to 930,000, after 770,000 for this year. Expected light vehicle sales still show improvement to 14.8M. Forecasted average monthly gains in payroll employment were nudged up to 165,000. The unemployment rate is expected to average 7.7% for all of next year, a slight downward revision. The forecast for consumer price inflation was nudged down to 2.1%. Expectations for growth in prices less food & energy were lowered slightly to 1.7% for this year and 1.8% for next.
Recent improvement in the bond market is expected to end with continued economic growth. The forecasted 2.25% interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes at the end of next year was roughly unchanged from the last forecast. Short-term rates should remain stable. The forecast for 5.0% corporate profit growth in 2013 was unchanged after an upwardly revised 8.5% for this year. However, these rates remain well below the 23.2% gain in 2010 and 11.4% growth in 2009 when the recovery first got going. Moderate economic growth is forecast to reduce the federal government budget deficit to $900 billion in 2013, a bit lower than expected earlier and well down versus its $1.4 trillion 2009 peak.
The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Association For Business Economics | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (% Chg. SAAR) | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -3.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
| Nonresidential Structures | 3.1 | 9.2 | 2.7 | -15.6 | -21.1 |
| Producers' Durable Equipment & Software | 5.0 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 8.9 | -16.4 |
| Residential Investment | 12.0 | 12.0 | -1.4 | -3.7 | -22.4 |
| Change in Real Business Inventories (Bil. $) | 40.0 | 41.2 | 31.0 | 50.9 | -139.0 |
| Real Net Exports (Bil. $) | -417.0 | -412.8 | -408.0 | -419.7 | -355.2 |
| Housing Starts (Mil. Units) | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Light Vehicle Sales (Mil. Units) | 14.8 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 10.4 |
| Payroll Employment Avg. Monthly Change (000s) | 165 | 156 | 153 | 86 | -422 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.7 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| Consumer Price Index (Y/Y %) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Fed Funds Rate (%, Year End) | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| 10-Year Treasury Note (%, Year End) | 2.25 | 1.70 | 1.89 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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